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Goldman Sachs warns that silver’s razor‑thin inventories make the metal exceptionally vulnerable to capital flows, amplifying both upside potential and downside risk.
Why Low Inventories Spark a “Squeeze”
Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven explain that the current scarcity is not a global shortage of silver but a localized bottleneck at the London bullion market, which serves as the global price benchmark. After a massive transfer of silver to U.S. vaults last year—prompted by concerns over potential U.S. trade tariffs under the Trump administration—London’s stockpiles fell to historically low levels.
From Normal to Hyper‑Sensitive
Under ordinary market conditions, a net weekly demand of 1,000 tonnes would lift prices by roughly 2 %. Goldman Sachs now estimates the same demand could trigger a 7 % move, reflecting a more than three‑fold increase in price elasticity.
Drivers Behind the 2025 Silver Rally
- Investors seeking safe‑haven assets amid geopolitical tension.
- Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will pause or cut rates.
- Portfolio diversification strategies that allocate a larger share to precious metals.
These fundamentals have already pushed silver to record highs, but the London “scarcity” effect is magnifying each price swing.
Supply‑Side Risks and Potential Headwinds
Even at record levels, demand may not outstrip supply. ETF holdings of silver remain below their 2021 peak, suggesting room for further inflows if rate cuts materialise.
Conversely, a clarification of trade policies could prompt a reverse flow of silver back to London, easing pressure on prices. Yet lingering policy uncertainty is likely to keep a significant portion of the metal in U.S. vaults.
Gold remains largely stored in COMEX New York; a similar pattern for silver could sustain extreme volatility even after any official tariff announcements.
China’s Export Restrictions
New Chinese export limits, effective through 2026, may fragment the global silver market, reduce liquidity, and amplify price swings.
Short‑Side Perspective: TD Securities
Canadian firm TD Securities has taken a bearish stance, short‑selling March silver futures at $78 USD/oz with a target of $40 USD/oz and a stop‑loss at $92 USD/oz, anticipating a correction as market fundamentals re‑balance.
Current Market Snapshot
Silver closed the latest trading week at $79.93 USD/oz. The same period saw the U.S. December jobs report reveal a unemployment rate of 4.4 %, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in its upcoming January meeting.
Investors should monitor inventory data, policy developments, and short‑term sentiment indicators to gauge whether silver’s price trajectory will continue its upward swing or revert amid the identified risks.